Rates & Capacity
- Ocean surcharges are stacking up — budget for July now. CMA CGM’s $4,000-per-FEU peak-season surcharge on all Asia-to-US cargo kicks in July 10, with HMM piling on $3,000 per FEU from July 15 — on top of mid-June hikes that already pushed West Coast spot rates past $7,000 and East Coast past $8,600 per box. If you’re importing from Asia this month, lock your rates; carriers have no incentive to blink before fall. (The Loadstar)
- Lines are throttling space to defend those rates. Drewry counts six to eight blanked transpacific sailings next week — a deliberate move to keep capacity tight and rates high even as peak demand shows early signs of topping out. Book early; last-minute space will be scarce and expensive. (gCaptain)
Ports & Imports
- US imports are on track for an all-time record — then a drop-off. The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker projects 2.47 million TEU through US ports in July, the highest monthly total ever, as importers front-load ahead of an expected August tariff jump. Volumes are forecast to slide from August on, so move deadline-sensitive freight now and plan for a softer Q4. (gCaptain)
- The gateways are absorbing the surge without gridlock. Even at record volume, LA/Long Beach reported almost no ships at anchor over the July 4 weekend. Congestion isn’t the pinch point right now — ocean rates and surcharges are. (gCaptain)
Carriers & Routes
- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd edge back toward the Suez. The Gemini partners are returning their Asia–Med AE15 loop to Red Sea/Suez routing after months around the Cape, shaving Asia–Europe transit time — but they’ve signaled no wider network shift and stand ready to reroute if security slips. For US shippers the read-through is indirect: any durable easing of the Red Sea diversion eventually loosens global capacity and cost. (gCaptain)
Policy & Domestic
- The month-end tariff deadline is the thing to watch. The temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs expire July 24, with a fresh round targeting forced-labor-linked goods expected as early as August — the engine behind this summer’s front-loading. C.H. Robinson pegs ocean surcharges already up $300–400 per container and flags the deadline, plus July 30 Q2 GDP, as what sets freight sentiment for the rest of the month. (C.H. Robinson)
- Truck rates are climbing; intermodal is winning share. C.H. Robinson forecasts a 34% year-over-year jump in July spot truckload rates, with intermodal volumes running ~10% above the five-year average as higher trucking and fuel costs push shippers toward rail. If you’ve got inland moves, price intermodal now. (C.H. Robinson)
Bottom line: US importers are in a July squeeze — record volumes colliding with stacked ocean surcharges into the July 24 tariff deadline — so lock rates, move deadline-sensitive cargo now, and expect relief only once peak fades in the fall.